Renewables Could Overtake US Natural Gas Output by 2027

Estimated reading time: 4 minutes · Last updated: 28 October 2026

Renewables could overtake natural gas as a source of US electricity output by summer 2027, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts, provided new projects keep connecting at the expected pace. The SUN DAY Campaign, which analysed EIA data, found renewable generation rose 10%, or more than 43 GW, over the first eight months of 2026. Solar did most of the lifting. Utility-scale solar added 27.1 GW between September 2025 and August 2026, while gas grew 2.6% and coal output fell more than 8%. The forecast is conditional, and the analysis behind it comes from a group whose director calls that growth unstoppable.

Each new issue of EIA's 'Electric Power Monthly' reinforces the theme that the growth of solar, wind and battery storage has become unstoppable.

Ken Bossong, executive director of the SUN DAY Campaign

How Solar and Storage Drove the 2026 Gains

The SUN DAY Campaign ranks utility-scale and small-scale solar as the two renewable sources growing fastest on the grid. Measured against January to August 2025, utility-scale solar rose 20% in the same months of 2026, and smaller systems rose 12%.

From September 2025 to August 2026, utility-scale solar grew by 27.1 GW and small-scale solar by 6.5 GW, together about 33.6 GW. Battery energy storage capacity climbed 17.6 GW in that window. A battery storage system holds electricity and releases it later rather than generating its own.

By the start of September 2026, renewables supplied 34.5% of utility-scale generation nationally, and the SUN DAY analysis projects their share of total US output will top 40% over the next year. That would be a gain of more than five percentage points.

Why the Gas Forecast Hinges on Pace

Fossil fuels and nuclear lagged far behind. New natural gas output grew 2.6% and nuclear 1.3%, while coal fell by more than 8%. EIA's call that renewables could pass gas by summer 2027 rests on new projects continuing to arrive as fast as expected.

Ken Bossong, executive director of the SUN DAY Campaign, said each issue of EIA's Electric Power Monthly strengthens his view that solar, wind and storage growth cannot be stopped, while fossil fuels and nuclear lose share of both generation and capacity. That framing goes further than the data. EIA itself frames the crossover as a possibility tied to deployment, not a settled outcome.

One caution on the numbers: the analysis reports the 10% rise in generation alongside a figure in gigawatts, a capacity measure, so the two should not be read as identical quantities.

Will renewables pass gas by summer 2027?

The bottom line

The direction in EIA's data is clear even if the crossover date is not. Solar, at both utility and small scale, leads renewable growth in the SUN DAY Campaign's count, and storage is growing alongside it. Gas still grew in 2026, just slowly, which means the summer 2027 milestone depends on renewables keeping their current pace rather than on gas collapsing. Coal's 2026 decline of more than 8% helps the renewable share but does not settle the race with gas. The next test is whether monthly EIA figures keep the national share climbing from 34.5% toward the 40% the analysis expects.

What to watch

• Watch whether renewable output actually passes natural gas by summer 2027, the point EIA has flagged if deployment stays on pace.
• Watch the coming issues of EIA's Electric Power Monthly for whether the renewable share keeps rising from 34.5%; no specific release date is given.
• Watch whether renewables reach more than 40% of total US output over the next year, as the SUN DAY analysis projects; no exact date has been set.