Latin America Could Double Onshore Wind by 2035

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes · Last updated: 4 October 2026

GWEC projects that Latin America’s onshore wind capacity could exceed 120 GW by 2035, a jump from the region’s 44.7 GW installed in 2022. That upside rests on rapid build-out in Brazil and Mexico, where Brazil already operates about 35 GW and Mexico has more than 8.1 GW and a policy drive to add nearly 30 GW of renewables and storage by 2030. Wood Mackenzie cautions that grid bottlenecks and local oversupply, particularly in Brazil and Chile, will moderate deployment unless transmission and demand grow alongside new projects. The primary debate is therefore not resource potential but whether networks and offtake can keep pace with turbine installations.

The growth of renewable energy is an energy transition success story – 92.5 per cent of all new capacity additions in 2024 came from renewable sources.

Ben Backwell, CEO, Global Wind Energy Council

Why forecasts diverge: GWEC’s upside versus Wood Mackenzie’s caution

Two forecasts underpin the headline projection but diverge on how quickly new capacity can be absorbed. The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) lays out a high-growth scenario in which Latin America clears permitting and grid hurdles to reach more than 120 GW of onshore capacity by 2035. By contrast, Wood Mackenzie’s July 2025 analysis models a softer trajectory for South America specifically, projecting 83 GW in South America by 2034 and assuming a 6.5 per cent compound annual growth rate under current constraints, as first reported by Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com.

The difference is primarily methodological: GWEC focuses on resource potential and announced projects, while Wood Mackenzie layers realistic limits on transmission expansion and short-term demand growth. Kárys Prado, Senior Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, summed up that headwinds such as grid restrictions and solar competition will moderate near-term additions. Those competing assumptions mean the headline outcome — whether capacity doubles or merely expands moderately — depends on whether networks and system demand are upgraded at scale.

Brazil and Mexico carry the region’s near-term expansion

Brazil and Mexico account for the bulk of the region’s wind footprint and development pipeline. Brazil already has about 35 GW of commercial onshore wind capacity, according to the Brazilian Association of Wind Energy and New Technologies (ABEEólica), with roughly 90 percent of turbines sited in the northeastern states where wind regimes are strongest. Developers are adding hybrid projects there too; Statkraft’s Ventos de Santa Eugênia complex in Bahia combines 14 wind farms (91 turbines at 5.7 MW each) with a 162 MW solar addition.

Mexico’s private- and public-sector metrics also show scale: the country operates more than 76 wind farms across 16 states totalling over 8.1 GW, and Mexican institutions estimate roughly $4–5 billion of investment in wind by 2030 alongside almost 2.2 GW of new installed capacity in the near term. BloombergNEF’s Mexico Transition Outlook 2026 figures into that picture, projecting deep investment in power generation and storage out to 2035. Those two markets therefore represent the practical base from which regional totals can rise or stall.

Transmission and demand: the real limiter on new turbines

Across the region, multiple sources in the material identify transmission capacity and system demand as the bottleneck to turning planned turbines into deliverable power. Wood Mackenzie warns of power oversupply in markets such as Brazil and Chile when new renewable capacity arrives faster than new transmission and dispatch arrangements, a dynamic that can push projects into curtailed operation or delay energisation. In practical terms, adding turbines without lines leaves generation stranded or forces developers to accept lower revenues.

The material gives concrete examples of how developers and financiers are responding: Argentina’s Olavarria project includes privately financed transmission (a 25 km line) to connect 185.6 MW of wind to major demand centres, and the International Finance Corporation has agreed to support that package. Those integrated deals are a template for avoiding the oversupply trap—but they require coordinated permitting, financing and long-term offtake arrangements that have been slow to scale in parts of the region.

Smaller markets and industrial offtake: Argentina and new models

Argentina illustrates how private offtake and targeted transmission can unlock projects even where national grids are stressed. The International Finance Corporation announced financing for the Olavarria Wind Farm and supporting transmission along the Bahía Blanca–Abasto corridor; the package covers 29 Vestas turbines delivering 185.6 MW and a 25 km transmission link at an approximate project cost of $275 million. Acindar, part of ArcelorMittal, plans to use the wind output to decarbonise its steel operations, showing how captive industrial demand can lower merchant risk.

Replicating that model elsewhere would require regulatory allowances for privately financed transmission to interconnect with national systems and clear rules for cost recovery. Where countries can align corporate buyers, multilateral finance and grid permits, projects can proceed despite broader system constraints; where they cannot, growth will be concentrated in a handful of low-cost resource zones and slower overall than headline forecasts imply.

How the next decade could play out

The bottom line

The region’s wind potential is large and concentrated: resource quality, developer appetite and multilateral finance exist to push Latin America’s onshore fleet substantially higher than today’s 44.7 GW. Whether that potential becomes a >120 GW reality by 2035 depends on the pace of grid expansion, the willingness to finance private transmission where needed, and the evolution of demand and market rules in countries such as Brazil and Mexico. Policymakers and investors that prioritise coordinated transmission build-out and firm offtake arrangements will determine if the optimistic GWEC scenario or the more constrained Wood Mackenzie outcome prevails.

What to watch

• Watch for announcements of major transmission projects in Brazil to publish delivery timetables; no date has been set.
• Watch for public or private timetables for the Bahía Blanca–Abasto corridor upgrades that will carry Olavarria output; no date has been set.
• Watch for Mexico’s progress reports on its nearly 30 GW renewables and storage plan toward the 2030 target; no date has been set.