UK roadmap: 10 GW geothermal heat needs government backing

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes · Last updated: 21 October 2026

The National Geothermal Centre (NGC) has published Our Geothermal Nation, a strategic roadmap that asks the UK Government to back a national delivery effort to scale geothermal heat and power. The roadmap sets explicit targets: 10 gigawatts (GW) of geothermal heat and 1.5 GW of geothermal electricity by 2050, and it links those targets to a set of policy, market and delivery actions. The NGC argues delivery requires coordinated resourcing of the centre, a costed exploration-risk pilot to unlock first wells and active demand creation through heat networks and public‑estate projects. The primary keyword UK geothermal roadmap appears here to guide readers and search engines.

“This is a landmark moment for the National Geothermal Centre and indeed the acceleration of geothermal energy in the UK, which until now has had no national strategy”

Dr Charlotte Adams, CEO of the National Geothermal Centre

What the roadmap proposes and the immediate asks

Our Geothermal Nation is the National Geothermal Centre's strategic plan for scaling heat and power from the UK subsurface. It lays out 16 recommendations across policy, market design, skills, technology and infrastructure integration, and it sets three immediate asks of government: recognise and resource the NGC to lead national delivery with accountable targets; commission a costed exploration‑risk pilot; and create demand by assessing geothermal for heat networks and public‑estate projects and publishing a development pipeline.

The roadmap links its central ambition to measurable outcomes: it targets 10 gigawatts (GW) of geothermal heat and 1.5 GW of geothermal electricity by 2050, and it presents these as achievable if the government implements the NGC's delivery recommendations. The document also proposes a delivery timetable that begins with task‑group formation and a set of early pilots to reduce the first‑well barriers to investment.

Why the NGC says geothermal can scale in the UK

The NGC frames the UK's case for geothermal on four pillars: widespread resources, proven deployment across different geologies, transferable skills from the oil and gas sector and growing demand for low‑carbon heat. The roadmap points to operational commercial schemes as evidence that projects can work here: a 6 MW mine‑water district heating scheme in Gateshead and the United Downs geothermal power plant in Cornwall, which began generating electricity in February.

It also quantifies the potential system impact. At an illustrative 80 percent availability, the NGC shows that 10 GW of heat would supply about 70 TWh a year — roughly one‑eighth of the UK's modelled 2020 heat demand — and could displace about 82 TWh of gas used in boilers each year. The roadmap argues those outcomes would raise domestic energy security and cut reliance on imported gas.

The deployment barriers the roadmap identifies

The NGC identifies the deployment environment as the main obstacle to rapid growth. The first well in a geothermal project carries high upfront drilling costs and geological risk; once operational, systems run at low marginal cost, but those early costs deter private capital. The roadmap adds that investors face uncertain long‑term revenues and that existing licensing and risk‑sharing arrangements are limited.

Because of these structural features the centre recommends instruments that directly reduce exploration risk and create bankable revenue profiles. Those recommendations include a first‑well guarantee pilot to absorb drilling risk, a technology development fund, and proactive market‑making through demand aggregation on heat networks and public estates.

Delivery steps, regional focus and skills transfer

To begin delivery the NGC proposes a 24-month programme that stages action and concentrates capacity where resource and skills already exist. The immediate phase would set the NGC's mandate as a national delivery body within six months, followed by pilots and funds within 12 months, before broader rollout. The roadmap also recommends regional centres of excellence in Cornwall, North‑East England and North Yorkshire, Scotland and Northern Ireland to anchor local project pipelines and skills development.

The document highlights the opportunity to retain workers leaving the oil and gas sector by moving many into vocational, operational and engineering roles in geothermal: the NGC estimates 75 to 80 percent of a future geothermal workforce would be in those occupations. To create demand for that workforce the roadmap pins geothermal to heat network expansion and to assessments of public‑estate projects where heat can be repurposed locally.

Case for and against rapid geothermal scale-up

The bottom line

The National Geothermal Centre's roadmap sets a concrete delivery framework and measurable targets for geothermal in the UK, but it is explicit that public policy and finance decisions will determine whether those ambitions are realised. The technical case rests on existing projects, transferable skills and resource mapping; the commercial case needs instruments to reduce first‑well risk, create bankable revenue streams and aggregate demand through heat networks and public estate procurement. If government acts on the NGC's three immediate asks and the proposed early pilots, the roadmap argues the UK can convert proven resources into persistent, home‑grown heat and power at scale.

What to watch

• Watch for the geothermal task group to agree the NGC's mandate as national delivery body; no date has been set.
• Watch for the launch of a costed exploration‑risk pilot or a first‑well guarantee pilot; no date has been set.
• Watch for publication of a government‑assessed pipeline of suitable heat‑network and public‑estate projects; no date has been set.