EU Joins COP31 Geothermal Pledge Aiming for 12-Fold Growth

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes · Last updated: 13 November 2026

The European Union has joined the COP31 geothermal pledge, formally the Global Geothermal Ambition 2050. Its signatories want the world to draw twelve times as much electricity and heat from geothermal sources in 2050 as it did in 2025. The Turkish COP31 Presidency launched it with the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). IRENA's modelling has primary geothermal supply rising from 2.5 to 31 exajoules by 2050, with installed capacity climbing from 15.6 GW to 193 GW. Dan Jørgensen, European Commissioner for Energy and Housing, set out the EU's position at the climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, on 12 November 2026. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen used the same summit to back a separate goal: electricity at 35% of final energy use by 2035.

By harnessing this clean energy source, we can reduce emissions, support affordable energy for our citizens and businesses, and reinforce our strategic autonomy.

Dan Jørgensen, European Commissioner for Energy and Housing

What the Geothermal Pledge Sets Out to Achieve

The Global Geothermal Ambition 2050 is a pledge that was launched at COP31, the climate meeting held as the UNFCCC's 31st Conference of the Parties under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The talks are taking place in Antalya, a resort city on Turkey's Mediterranean coast. At the heart of the pledge is a twelvefold expansion of geothermal energy by 2050, counting both electricity and heat and using 2025 levels as the baseline.

IRENA supplies the numbers behind that goal. The agency finds that total primary geothermal energy supply could grow from 2.5 exajoules to 31 exajoules by 2050. An exajoule is a unit of energy large enough to measure whole national and global energy systems. In capacity terms, IRENA's path runs from 15.6 GW to 193 GW, which works out to about 177 GW of new geothermal capacity.

Both measures point to roughly the same multiple. Dividing 31 by 2.5, or 193 by 15.6, gives a factor of about 12.4, and the pledge rounds this to 12. The pledge says it recognises IRENA's findings. It does not set out how the 193 GW would be divided among signatories, so the EU's own share of the effort is still undefined.

Why Brussels Sells Geothermal as an Energy Security Asset

Dan Jørgensen, European Commissioner for Energy and Housing, put security first. He said geothermal energy has a key role in making Europe more secure, competitive and resilient. He described it as a dependable source of heating and cooling and of continuous baseload electricity, unaffected by weather or by swings in global energy prices. Baseload is the steady floor of demand that a grid has to meet at every hour.

Jørgensen linked the pledge to emissions, affordability and what he called strategic autonomy. That word choice explains why Brussels is backing this pledge. For the Commission, geothermal is a home-grown supply that cannot be cut off by an exporter or disrupted by a calm, cloudy week.

The Turkish COP31 Presidency and IRENA made a similar argument in the invitation they sent to prospective signatories. They said round-the-clock geothermal power and heat can limit exposure to volatile fuel prices and make energy systems more resilient. They added that it can serve rising demand from industry, digital infrastructure and growing economies. The pledge also points to direct use, meaning heat taken straight from the ground for heating, cooling, food and farming, industrial processes and tourism.

Exploration Risk Is the Barrier the Pledge Must Overcome

The pledge's backers acknowledge that the sector has made progress. They also warn that much faster deployment is needed if geothermal is to reach its potential and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Their appeal goes to governments, financial institutions, businesses and international organisations. They want these groups to mobilise investment, tackle exploration risk and the high cost of capital, and fund research and workforce training.

Exploration risk is the chance that an expensive test well finds too little heat or flow to support a viable plant. Igor Todorović, a Balkan Green Energy News reporter, explained that exploratory drilling is hard and costly and often fails to produce satisfactory results. When that happens, initial project costs can double, triple or rise further.

Todorović added that geothermal equipment and construction usually cost far more than gas, solar or wind projects. The trade-off is a plant that runs continuously and needs no fuel. The pledge correctly identifies the problem, but the commitments announced at Antalya carry no financing figure. Until a public lender or fund takes on drilling losses, the 193 GW path is still an aspiration.

How Geothermal Fits Von der Leyen's Electrification Push

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, used her COP31 speech to support the 35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge and urged other governments to join. That pledge aims to raise electricity's share of final energy consumption to 35% by 2035. Von der Leyen cited the International Energy Agency's view that the goal is achievable. She said reaching it could cut consumer bills and energy emissions and improve energy security.

She also pointed to the EU's own record. More than 70% of the bloc's electricity came from clean sources last year, she said. The EU's Electrification Action Plan aims to double electricity's share of final energy use to 46% by 2040, a higher bar than the global 35% goal set for five years earlier.

The two pledges overlap only in part. Geothermal power counts toward electrification. Geothermal direct use delivers heat without passing through the grid, so it counts toward the geothermal goal but not toward electricity's share. Brussels has now signed both.

What could speed or stall a twelvefold geothermal build-out

The bottom line

By signing the Global Geothermal Ambition 2050, the EU has backed IRENA's case that geothermal supply can grow about twelvefold by mid-century, from 15.6 GW to 193 GW of capacity. Jørgensen's argument rests on security: power and heat that run regardless of weather or fuel markets. The weak point is the one the pledge names itself. Drilling can fail, and early costs can multiply when it does. Nothing announced in Antalya assigns money to absorb that risk. Von der Leyen's electrification targets of 35% globally by 2035 and 46% for the EU by 2040 give geothermal power a market. Whether geothermal heat grows at the same pace depends on finance that has not yet been committed.

What to watch

• Watch for which other governments sign the Global Geothermal Ambition 2050 before the Antalya negotiations close; no closing date has been given.
• Watch whether any public lender or fund commits money against geothermal exploration risk, the barrier the pledge names first; no date has been set.
• The 35-by-35 pledge will be measured in 2035, when electricity is meant to reach 35% of final energy consumption worldwide.